sub 80 USD / barrel in next few quarter?? is it likely??

the bubble has been blown and the ship has been sank. the vortex from that sunken ship drawn many other ships to the bottom of the sea. the first ship represents US and another ships represent many other countries, including Indonesia.

yes, this is what we called today as global recession. and one of the visible multiplier effect is the oil price; it plummets to below psychological level of 50 USD / barrel or nearly one third from its 147 USD / barrel record set in just few months ago. the steep decrease of oil price may seem better for third world countries as their energy expenses will also decrease, but in the other hand also weaken the demand of another energy resources outside oil and gas, something in which some of the third world economy depend on. multiplied by low financed liquidity of foreign investors, this affects much on the industry of alternative energy, especially in foreign investment dependant nations.

another side effect of decreasing oil price is that it will affect the derivatives energy prices outside oil and gas, or namely, the secondary energy resources. those secondary energy will be put aside as the primary energy is relatively cheap and visible enough now days. primary energy resources are the most popular and practical to be used and thus brings the another energy resources seem to be more expensive due to improvable and more cost viably factor rather than the primary energy ones.

although the demand and worldwide production of oil and gas sector together with the supporting industries are set lower than before the global crisis, the declination is not further than those of another energy resources. And this is something good in the industry; back to vortex and sunken ship analogy in the first paragraph, there are some big ship managed to survive and keep floating in the vortex lips, and those countries are likely to keep the high demand level on primary energy resources for drawing oil price in a new equilibrium for the next few quarters aftermath. for this matter, a sub 80 USD / barrel is a visible number of equilibrium.

together with the new demand of primary energy resources, the secondary is likely to be drawn but only in few more quarters after the new price equilibrium is set. Industries in this secondary sector are likely to have slightly longer hibernation time than those of the primary sector.