the bubble has been blown and the ship has been sank. the vortex from that sunken ship drawn many other ships to the bottom of the sea. the first ship represents US and another ships represent many other countries, including Indonesia.
yes, this is what we called today as global recession. and one of the visible multiplier effect is the oil price; it plummets to below psychological level of 50 USD / barrel or nearly one third from its 147 USD / barrel record set in just few months ago. the steep decrease of oil price may seem better for third world countries as their energy expenses will also decrease, but in the other hand also weaken the demand of another energy resources outside oil and gas, something in which some of the third world economy depend on. multiplied by low financed liquidity of foreign investors, this affects much on the industry of alternative energy, especially in foreign investment dependant nations.
another side effect of decreasing oil price is that it will affect the derivatives energy prices outside oil and gas, or namely, the secondary energy resources. those secondary energy will be put aside as the primary energy is relatively cheap and visible enough now days. primary energy resources are the most popular and practical to be used and thus brings the another energy resources seem to be more expensive due to improvable and more cost viably factor rather than the primary energy ones.
although the demand and worldwide production of oil and gas sector together with the supporting industries are set lower than before the global crisis, the declination is not further than those of another energy resources. And this is something good in the industry; back to vortex and sunken ship analogy in the first paragraph, there are some big ship managed to survive and keep floating in the vortex lips, and those countries are likely to keep the high demand level on primary energy resources for drawing oil price in a new equilibrium for the next few quarters aftermath. for this matter, a sub 80 USD / barrel is a visible number of equilibrium.
together with the new demand of primary energy resources, the secondary is likely to be drawn but only in few more quarters after the new price equilibrium is set. Industries in this secondary sector are likely to have slightly longer hibernation time than those of the primary sector.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
independence oh independence
Independensi…
Gerakan mahasiswa dewasa ini generally adalah perpanjangan dari suatu gerakan politik tertentu. Gue sendiri ngalamin ini waktu di bandung dulu. Jadi memang dewasa ini gerakan mahasiswa jauh dari independensi. Mereka bisa bersuara lantang jika kalangan eksekutif menyimpang, tetapi diam seribu bahasa jika kalangan yudikatif yang tidak benar. Kita semua tahu system DPR Negara ini seperti apa, and such system is still running this time. Hebatnya mahasiswa hampir tidak bersuara untuk membenahi system premanisme DPR.
Tentang Budi Utomo, frankly speaking, ada bukti2 sejarah yang mengatakan bahwa Budi Utomo merupakan perpanjangan tangan sebuah kelompok yang berusia ratusan tahun yang sekarang membidani apa yang disebut dengan tatanan dunia baru (baca: kapitalisme) yang menimbulkan krisis dewasa ini dan krisis yang kita alami 10 tahun lalu. Fakta sejarah itu sebetulnya merupakan komoditas politik penguasa yang sedang berkuasa, and therefore we should be very careful to talk about this.
And sebetulnya Budi Utomo bukan yang pertama berdiri. Organisasi sejenis telah establish sebelum Budi Utomo berdiri. Sekali lagi ini adalah fakta sejarah dan butuh sumber yang lebih capable untuk pertanyaan lebih jauh. Only god knows. Wallahu’alam bisshawab.
Independensi…
Indonesia sebenarnya tidak pernah merdeka. Proklamasi 17 Agustus itu hanyalah kemerdekaan secara fisik. Setelah itu negeri ini mengalami sejarah kelam dengan berbagai pengaruh masuknya ideologi2 dari luar. Mungkin hanyalah pada era Bung Karno sajalah negeri ini cukup balans dalam mengakomodir berbagai ideology sehingga terciptalah suatu equilibrium politik dimana Bung Karno bertindak sebagai center point nya. Ketika konspirasi 65-66 muncul, center point itu runtuh dan sebagai efeknya muncul konstelasi baru pada era Soeharto, yaitu kapitalisme dan militerisme.
Pada era Bung Karno, ekonomi stagnan karena bangsa ini masih mencari bentuk. Namun pada era Soeharto ekonomi menjadi booming karena derasnya modal asing yang masuk melalui system kapitalisme (kapital = modal). Pada era ini tercipta suatu kohesi sosial dibawah payung pertumbuhan ekonomi dan booming minyak. Soeharto menerapkan suatu control ketat terhadap sector ekonomi mikro dengan berbagai kebijakan yang controversial. Masih ingat BPPC untuk petani cengkeh?
Namun ternyata fundamental ekonomi pada era ini sangat rapuh dan berpuncak pada krisis 1998 lalu. Setelah era ini pun ternyata Indonesia masih belum banyak bergerak walaupun kita dibilang negeri maju soal demokrasi. Jadi sekarang, apakah sebenarnya system yang sedang kita anut ini relevan ataukah sama seperti dulu yang mempunyai banyak kekurangan?
Kita sudah cukup kenyang melihat berita perpecahan partai hanya karena salah satu kandidat ketua umum kalah dalam pemilihan ketua umum partai yang bersangkutan. Lalu berita tentang pilkada yang menghabiskan dana milyaran rupiah yang ternyata hanya memilih orang yang akan melakukan korupsi?
Masih segar di kepala kita tentang jargon kampanye salah satu kandidat gubernur DKI Jakarta yang menyebutkan “Jakarta? Serahkan pada ahlinya!!”, dan ternyata ketika beliau naik jabatan menyatakan tidak punya solusi jangka pendek atas kemacetan akibat pembangunan jalur busway koridor 8-10, dan mengizinkan semua kendaraan bermotor untuk melintas di jalur busway pada waktu itu.
Setiap pemimpin baru yang terpilih akan memulai programnya dari awal dan menafikan program yang telah dibuat sebelumnya. Sebagai hasil, kita tidak melihat overall progress bangsa ini menuju kemakmuran hidup.
Ternyata system yang sekarang hanya menjadikan rakyat Indonesia sebagai komoditas politik dari sebuah system yang berkiblat ke sebuah Negara adikuasa. System yang belum terbukti membawa kebaikan bagi rakyat Indonesia dan malah memecah belah kita. Rakyat kita masih gampang terhasut oleh contohnya jargon politik diatas…
Apakah kita akan terus-menerus terjebak dalam system orang lain sejak berabad2 lalu, ataukah kita akan menemukan system sendiri, atau akan mengadopsi system yang berhasil untuk kita? Kapankah kita akan benar-benar mendeklarasikan kemerdekaan kita? Kemerdekaan yang akan membawa kemakmuran luar dalam bagi negeri kita?
Wallahu’alam bisshawab… only God knows…
Gerakan mahasiswa dewasa ini generally adalah perpanjangan dari suatu gerakan politik tertentu. Gue sendiri ngalamin ini waktu di bandung dulu. Jadi memang dewasa ini gerakan mahasiswa jauh dari independensi. Mereka bisa bersuara lantang jika kalangan eksekutif menyimpang, tetapi diam seribu bahasa jika kalangan yudikatif yang tidak benar. Kita semua tahu system DPR Negara ini seperti apa, and such system is still running this time. Hebatnya mahasiswa hampir tidak bersuara untuk membenahi system premanisme DPR.
Tentang Budi Utomo, frankly speaking, ada bukti2 sejarah yang mengatakan bahwa Budi Utomo merupakan perpanjangan tangan sebuah kelompok yang berusia ratusan tahun yang sekarang membidani apa yang disebut dengan tatanan dunia baru (baca: kapitalisme) yang menimbulkan krisis dewasa ini dan krisis yang kita alami 10 tahun lalu. Fakta sejarah itu sebetulnya merupakan komoditas politik penguasa yang sedang berkuasa, and therefore we should be very careful to talk about this.
And sebetulnya Budi Utomo bukan yang pertama berdiri. Organisasi sejenis telah establish sebelum Budi Utomo berdiri. Sekali lagi ini adalah fakta sejarah dan butuh sumber yang lebih capable untuk pertanyaan lebih jauh. Only god knows. Wallahu’alam bisshawab.
Independensi…
Indonesia sebenarnya tidak pernah merdeka. Proklamasi 17 Agustus itu hanyalah kemerdekaan secara fisik. Setelah itu negeri ini mengalami sejarah kelam dengan berbagai pengaruh masuknya ideologi2 dari luar. Mungkin hanyalah pada era Bung Karno sajalah negeri ini cukup balans dalam mengakomodir berbagai ideology sehingga terciptalah suatu equilibrium politik dimana Bung Karno bertindak sebagai center point nya. Ketika konspirasi 65-66 muncul, center point itu runtuh dan sebagai efeknya muncul konstelasi baru pada era Soeharto, yaitu kapitalisme dan militerisme.
Pada era Bung Karno, ekonomi stagnan karena bangsa ini masih mencari bentuk. Namun pada era Soeharto ekonomi menjadi booming karena derasnya modal asing yang masuk melalui system kapitalisme (kapital = modal). Pada era ini tercipta suatu kohesi sosial dibawah payung pertumbuhan ekonomi dan booming minyak. Soeharto menerapkan suatu control ketat terhadap sector ekonomi mikro dengan berbagai kebijakan yang controversial. Masih ingat BPPC untuk petani cengkeh?
Namun ternyata fundamental ekonomi pada era ini sangat rapuh dan berpuncak pada krisis 1998 lalu. Setelah era ini pun ternyata Indonesia masih belum banyak bergerak walaupun kita dibilang negeri maju soal demokrasi. Jadi sekarang, apakah sebenarnya system yang sedang kita anut ini relevan ataukah sama seperti dulu yang mempunyai banyak kekurangan?
Kita sudah cukup kenyang melihat berita perpecahan partai hanya karena salah satu kandidat ketua umum kalah dalam pemilihan ketua umum partai yang bersangkutan. Lalu berita tentang pilkada yang menghabiskan dana milyaran rupiah yang ternyata hanya memilih orang yang akan melakukan korupsi?
Masih segar di kepala kita tentang jargon kampanye salah satu kandidat gubernur DKI Jakarta yang menyebutkan “Jakarta? Serahkan pada ahlinya!!”, dan ternyata ketika beliau naik jabatan menyatakan tidak punya solusi jangka pendek atas kemacetan akibat pembangunan jalur busway koridor 8-10, dan mengizinkan semua kendaraan bermotor untuk melintas di jalur busway pada waktu itu.
Setiap pemimpin baru yang terpilih akan memulai programnya dari awal dan menafikan program yang telah dibuat sebelumnya. Sebagai hasil, kita tidak melihat overall progress bangsa ini menuju kemakmuran hidup.
Ternyata system yang sekarang hanya menjadikan rakyat Indonesia sebagai komoditas politik dari sebuah system yang berkiblat ke sebuah Negara adikuasa. System yang belum terbukti membawa kebaikan bagi rakyat Indonesia dan malah memecah belah kita. Rakyat kita masih gampang terhasut oleh contohnya jargon politik diatas…
Apakah kita akan terus-menerus terjebak dalam system orang lain sejak berabad2 lalu, ataukah kita akan menemukan system sendiri, atau akan mengadopsi system yang berhasil untuk kita? Kapankah kita akan benar-benar mendeklarasikan kemerdekaan kita? Kemerdekaan yang akan membawa kemakmuran luar dalam bagi negeri kita?
Wallahu’alam bisshawab… only God knows…
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
brainmap??
i never believe in this kinda test...just have fun for myself..but its damn right!!
they said this website can describe your brain profile...
http://mindmedia.com/brainworks/profiler
and below is the result-->>
"Your Brain Usage Profile:
Auditory : 20%
Visual : 80%
Left : 33%
Right : 66%
niko, you are somewhat right-hemisphere dominant and have a strong visual preference, a blend of characteristics which typically apply to persons with an "artistic" temperament.
In all likelihood, you naturally act in the way that people have come to expect artists to act. With your dominant visual learning style you are active and seeking, working to absorb all of the facets of your environment. Your mind rarely rests, for even when you are not scouring the environment you are turning your searchlight on your own internal processes.
You are intense! In continually processing the data as you do on a multidimensional level, you spend little of your time in reflection -- or sometimes in social niceties. There is a high probability that you are "out of check" -- though not out of control -- sometimes, swept away by the feelings of the moment. You are one of those individuals that may well attempt to assemble a complex piece of equipment without reading the directions or following a sequence, though you might look at the diagram. Sequencing your own behavior is problematic at times.
You are rarely reflective about yourself or your motivations. You know when things are right because you feel it, you intuit as automatically as you breathe. With others, you tend to "go with your guts," not needing rules or expectations to govern your friendships.
You absorb material rapidly and randomly, it is filed "helter skelter" internally. Listening or learning from materials presented in a purely verbal fashion is not your "strong suit" and your performance in situations designed for left-hemisphere dominant persons will not always measure up to the expectations of others. If you have particular learning needs, it is to sequence material and remain focused while you are processing, to develop "structuring" techniques, and to become more efficient with your spontaneity and creativity. "
they said this website can describe your brain profile...
http://mindmedia.com/brainworks/profiler
and below is the result-->>
"Your Brain Usage Profile:
Auditory : 20%
Visual : 80%
Left : 33%
Right : 66%
niko, you are somewhat right-hemisphere dominant and have a strong visual preference, a blend of characteristics which typically apply to persons with an "artistic" temperament.
In all likelihood, you naturally act in the way that people have come to expect artists to act. With your dominant visual learning style you are active and seeking, working to absorb all of the facets of your environment. Your mind rarely rests, for even when you are not scouring the environment you are turning your searchlight on your own internal processes.
You are intense! In continually processing the data as you do on a multidimensional level, you spend little of your time in reflection -- or sometimes in social niceties. There is a high probability that you are "out of check" -- though not out of control -- sometimes, swept away by the feelings of the moment. You are one of those individuals that may well attempt to assemble a complex piece of equipment without reading the directions or following a sequence, though you might look at the diagram. Sequencing your own behavior is problematic at times.
You are rarely reflective about yourself or your motivations. You know when things are right because you feel it, you intuit as automatically as you breathe. With others, you tend to "go with your guts," not needing rules or expectations to govern your friendships.
You absorb material rapidly and randomly, it is filed "helter skelter" internally. Listening or learning from materials presented in a purely verbal fashion is not your "strong suit" and your performance in situations designed for left-hemisphere dominant persons will not always measure up to the expectations of others. If you have particular learning needs, it is to sequence material and remain focused while you are processing, to develop "structuring" techniques, and to become more efficient with your spontaneity and creativity. "
cultural issues in one cultured countries..
maybe this is kinda outdated to talk about culture issues between Indonesia and Malaysia... but late is always permitted than keeping silence.. (silence is not always like a gold, though..)
first time let me introduce myself. i have something to do with malaysian. my beloved wife is malaysian, ehm, north kalimantan to be precise. they are quite different with those semenanjung malaysian. my wife’s family always said “thats semenanjung, not us..” if i asked her about those “pirating” issues. hahahaha.. from this, we know that they are not very unified, as a result of a premature unification by the british empire at 1963.
they also said its forbidden ( kalau orang sunda teh bilang ini pamali’ ) for north bornean to speak semenanjung…wah wah wah..makin banyak aja nih bahasa di malaysia, udah bahasa melayu semenanjung, cina, india, sekarang ini pula… PEACE bro…
actually, they always admire us because of our nationality and sense of “one” (unified, for precise).. when we go to medan for example, we can easily talk indonesia to communicate with people. not like them.
back to topic. from my marriage, i can see that people in north borneo are very different than semenanjung.. they are highly creative. there we can find so many dance, song, and other civilization products, or known as culture.
i dont know what is their (their refers to..ehm malaysian.., or maybe semenanjung only?) thinking of pirating our culture. maybe they want to be creative so that they can attract other side of “malaysian” to be united like us. but whats the benefit for them? they already “occupied” the north borneo, and there are only around 2,5 million people at north borneo, or 10% of total malaysian population ( hey man.. thats insignificant number for separation feeling.. ).. no benefit for them..
or maybe they just lack of recources supporting them from Malaysia Trully Asia campaign? maybe they lack of culture diversity, or to be exact, culture originality.. most of culture there dominated by culture coming from outside of semenanjung.. and they are desperate to find their original culture.. and so they began to “adapt” our culture as their closest relatives..
dulu batik, angklung, keris, eh sekarang lagu…
we are historically close to them..only imperialism and colonialism made us apart. there is one dance, zapin dance, that shows us the close relation between us (sumatra) and semenanjung..thats one of few evidences.
but thats not the reason of rasa sayange claim. we all know that its a maluku song, and speaking of which, its indonesian song. its not close to them. its indonesian!
but wait!! at one of P Ramlee's movie (which i believe made at 1950's or 1960's), one of the background music is lagu "Rasa Sayang"....! soo... who claimed who??
another important thing is about batik. if we take a look carefully to their batik and our batik, we will see some obvious difference.. their batik is not even batik to us. and for them, our batik is not a batik to them. our batik is more to repeated pattern and motives, whereas their batik is more to color and paintings. its two different world with one word definition..
i really hate colonialism and imperialisms in any shape..
back to culture issues
take those all as our precautions to have more respect to our country. to our culture. to our unity. to our independence. it is time for us to respect more about our country. do not let this all happened again..kita jangan lemah lagi kawan. saatnya kita bangga dan berjuang sebagai orang indonesia.
dont ask your country what they have given to you but ask ourself what we have given to our country.
suatu hari nanti, mereka tak kan bisa mengklaim wayang kulit jika wayang kulit itu populer disini. sure of it and shame on them. just imagine if barongsai is claimed by non-chinese race. of course their claim will be very deniable bcoz barongsai is very popular and very common with chinese culture.
our power lies in our respect to our culture and our nation..
merdeka!!
first time let me introduce myself. i have something to do with malaysian. my beloved wife is malaysian, ehm, north kalimantan to be precise. they are quite different with those semenanjung malaysian. my wife’s family always said “thats semenanjung, not us..” if i asked her about those “pirating” issues. hahahaha.. from this, we know that they are not very unified, as a result of a premature unification by the british empire at 1963.
they also said its forbidden ( kalau orang sunda teh bilang ini pamali’ ) for north bornean to speak semenanjung…wah wah wah..makin banyak aja nih bahasa di malaysia, udah bahasa melayu semenanjung, cina, india, sekarang ini pula… PEACE bro…
actually, they always admire us because of our nationality and sense of “one” (unified, for precise).. when we go to medan for example, we can easily talk indonesia to communicate with people. not like them.
back to topic. from my marriage, i can see that people in north borneo are very different than semenanjung.. they are highly creative. there we can find so many dance, song, and other civilization products, or known as culture.
i dont know what is their (their refers to..ehm malaysian.., or maybe semenanjung only?) thinking of pirating our culture. maybe they want to be creative so that they can attract other side of “malaysian” to be united like us. but whats the benefit for them? they already “occupied” the north borneo, and there are only around 2,5 million people at north borneo, or 10% of total malaysian population ( hey man.. thats insignificant number for separation feeling.. ).. no benefit for them..
or maybe they just lack of recources supporting them from Malaysia Trully Asia campaign? maybe they lack of culture diversity, or to be exact, culture originality.. most of culture there dominated by culture coming from outside of semenanjung.. and they are desperate to find their original culture.. and so they began to “adapt” our culture as their closest relatives..
dulu batik, angklung, keris, eh sekarang lagu…
we are historically close to them..only imperialism and colonialism made us apart. there is one dance, zapin dance, that shows us the close relation between us (sumatra) and semenanjung..thats one of few evidences.
but thats not the reason of rasa sayange claim. we all know that its a maluku song, and speaking of which, its indonesian song. its not close to them. its indonesian!
but wait!! at one of P Ramlee's movie (which i believe made at 1950's or 1960's), one of the background music is lagu "Rasa Sayang"....! soo... who claimed who??
another important thing is about batik. if we take a look carefully to their batik and our batik, we will see some obvious difference.. their batik is not even batik to us. and for them, our batik is not a batik to them. our batik is more to repeated pattern and motives, whereas their batik is more to color and paintings. its two different world with one word definition..
i really hate colonialism and imperialisms in any shape..
back to culture issues
take those all as our precautions to have more respect to our country. to our culture. to our unity. to our independence. it is time for us to respect more about our country. do not let this all happened again..kita jangan lemah lagi kawan. saatnya kita bangga dan berjuang sebagai orang indonesia.
dont ask your country what they have given to you but ask ourself what we have given to our country.
suatu hari nanti, mereka tak kan bisa mengklaim wayang kulit jika wayang kulit itu populer disini. sure of it and shame on them. just imagine if barongsai is claimed by non-chinese race. of course their claim will be very deniable bcoz barongsai is very popular and very common with chinese culture.
our power lies in our respect to our culture and our nation..
merdeka!!
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